paul:welcome to the journal of soil report, the presidential race remains a tossup with a real pure politics boeing average showing kamala harris and donald trump locked in a dead heat nationally. in the seven swing states that will likely determine the outcome of the 2024 election. will this have any lasting effect on the race as the campaign enters the final stretch. let's ask karl rove. you wrote a common, on trump's performance but the question is how lasting will the impact be, if there is any? >> i don't think it is as good for harris as her camp thinks and as bad for the trump campaign as they might fear but

nonetheless remember how tight this is. you talked the national numbers, the real clear politics average, the 538 average in each of the seven battleground states. real clear politics, only in two of the seven states, arizona for trump and wisconsin for harris is the difference between the two candidates larger than 1%. same thing at 538. it's only two states, in wisconsin and michigan. we are talking, let's assume this has a one% or 2% impact on the electorate, that could be decisive. in the real clear politics average, 262 votes for donald trump, 257 for joe biden, 19 votes in pennsylvania which they call tied up. here it it is 236 for trump to 292 for harris but again, five

of the seven state suffering by less than a point. paul: the pet campaign pollster sent out a memo that their surveys show the movement among undecided voters was towards trump. do you believe that? >> every other poll shows since the debate shows that the movement has been towards harris albi at very modest. i am always suspicious of campaigns that issue their own numbers to correct the bad day. right now the evidence leans the other way. modestly, we are talking changes in these polls, of the four polls the biggest changes two points. paul: the other argument you hear from some trump folks and even fair-minded people who aren't connected with the

campaign in the press is the what harris didn't do in that debate is give some of these swing voters enough information about her views particularly on the economy, with all her attacks on trump which were effective and got him playing defense they don't know enough about harris to come to her side. what do you think of that? >> there's a lot to that argument. the campaign comes to an issue of which person do you believe has a better chart of handling the challenges of the next four years. that's partly based on the perception of the issues and on that trump has the advantage on the economy, inflation, the border. she has it on abortion. the other part of the consideration is personal characteristics of the candidates. on those she stands on better ground. she cares about people like me, they they see her as having a plan. we can sit here and say she

doesn't, but she has modestly got a lead on the question of does she have a plan for the future? if she's going to drive this home she has to create a sense that she has a second term agenda. both these candidates are running for their second term. she for the biden/harris administration, he for his own second term. people need to know that they have an agenda. she didn't do enough in the debate to drive that home but she didn't need to because she kept him on his back feet the entire time and he did not press the advantage he has on critical issues of inflation, economy, and the border. paul: do you think that's one of the reasons the harris campaign says it wants a second debate? they want that opportunity for the largest audience available which comes in a debate, press the question more, answer that question more about what she stands for on the economy?

>> perhaps but i have a more machiavellian interpretation. i think they want to talk about the debate because it chews up time. we have 50 days left. every day spend not talking about the economy, inflation, and the border is a day she wins. every day spent talking about abortion is a day she wins, every day spent talking about process issues like how to have a second debate is a day wasted and she doesn't mind wasting that day. she understand his mindset once he gets stuck on something that he sometimes changes, not if it makes him look weight. anything to describe the second debate changing his mind on it would make him look weak. he says no, you only want to second debate if you lost and i won that overwhelmingly and i think it's more machiavellian. paul: with trump, you think he's done with this because he's being a negotiator, just doesn't want to do a debate on nbc or some network, he wants

to do it on fox and he will come around to that. he needs it after he. the first one. >> that would mean he is surrounded by people telling him you've got a problem. you can't fix a problem unless you recognize the problem. i'm not sure he is surrounded by people who say he lost the debate. he thinks on some level he scored the points and won. this all boils down to the internal dynamics. when you have matt gaetz, tulsi gabbard as your debate team and debate confidants i don't know you are getting the true story. paul: that statement of understatement. still ahead in the wake of tuesday's first and perhaps only debate donald trump and kamala harris are barnstorming the battleground states. with 8 weeks to go can the former president move past his grievances and expose the vice president's progressive agenda? we will ask our panel next.

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paul: in the wake of tuesday's showdown in philadelphia, kamala harris and donald trump barnstorming about ground states making appearances in arizona, nevada, north carolina, and pennsylvania as the two candidates look to persuade undecided voters. trump said thursday that there will be no second debate with harris after what many believe was a missed opportunity for the former president to expose her progressive agenda. let's bring in our panel, dan heninger, jason riley and bill mcgurn. you wrote this week that trump did not do well and harris didn't put away the race. >> the nature of the debate. certainly i don't think trump did well though he himself said it was the deep -- best debate here at which is a good reason

not to have a secondment because he won't get better than what he did in the first one. kamala harris spent the entire debate attacking and dumping accusations on donald trump. the conventional wisdom was trump should stay away from personal attacks and stick to policy and kamala harris shows up and does exactly the opposite. we have to keep in mind that this debate is in the hands of the so-called undecided voters in seven swing states. a very small sliver of the electorate. if they were watching i think there take away was her attacks on him were over-the-top. i think so. secondly it was pretty clear that abc was much gentler on her than it was on him. the other reality out there is a lot of people distrust the mainstream media. i think the combination of harris spending all this time

attacking trump and getting help from abc on it has to cause a lot of undecided voters to say i am not so sure about kamala harris because i didn't get a clear idea what she wants to do for her opportunity economy. paul: harris didn't do more to separate herself from president biden on a host of issues, afghanistan for example, she didn't make any distinction on the economy or inflation. were you surprised? >> not really. she did what she set out to do. she is wanting us, the change candidate and she wanted people to be reminded of what the past looked like, button after button and let trump be trump and say look at that, you want four more years of that and it worked, she had him talking january 6th, she had him talking about 20/20 election, his legal problems, his crowd sizes. it worked and i think she

decided i'm going to double down on that. the second part of her strategy, not unreasonable is to be as vague as possible about what she's going to do going forward. all she wants to know is i'm not going to be like this guy over here. i have a plan she kept saying so i think she set out to achieve those objectives and she didn't achieve those objectives. paul: can she continue this levitation act? >> everyone says she can. i agree with dan that what she didn't do, remember coming into the debate, the expectations were so low, when donald trump said she's low iq, low intelligence, stupid, she didn't show that and the previous interviews with lester holt on the border, a lot of people thought she was going to

implode and she held her own for 90 minutes, started out a little shaky, she really did debate him on the crowd size, here we go. as soon as she brought up the crowd size. if you watched it without sound, you see kamala harris smiling, looking good calm and cool and donald trump looking good angry and jumbling sentences. may not have got her a lot of points but it is a shot of confidence. john: paul: donald trump making another tax cut proposal saying he doesn't want to tax overtime wages, no tax on tips, no tax on social security benefits. is well over $2 trillion in those tax cuts over ten years.

>> it presents an intriguing element into the election at this point with trump making these proposals, he has a better hand on the economy and inflation and that is the big issue that remains on the table with undecided voters, no question about it but if they are paying attention they've got to start asking themselves how is he possibly going to pay for all of these tax cuts because that is in some ways kamala harris's biggest weakness. all of her proposals are tax credits and spending and the government helping people, that is what he should have attacked in the debate but now that he has introduced how do you pay for these massive tax cuts which are not going to get through congress, undecideds are going to have to make a decision, who alternately would be best handling the economy. paul: kamala harris and donald trump traded barbs over national security records but

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>> it is very well known that donald trump is weak and wrong on national security and foreign policy. it is well-known that he admires dictators, wants to be a dictator on day one according to himself. >> the leaders of other countries think that they are weak and incompetent and they are. they are grossly incompetent. >> i agree with president biden's decision to pull out of afghanistan. four presidents said they would. joe biden did. >> these people to the worst

withdrawal, the most embarrassing moment in history of our country. that is why russia attacked ukraine because they saw how incompetent xi and her boss are. paul: kamala harris and donald trump traded barbs over foreign policy records tuesday with each accusing the other of being weak on national security. the vice president defending the biden administration's withdrawal from afghanistan. either candidate make a strong case to be the next commander-in-chief? donald trump has been commander-in-chief. kamala harris has not. so she has a higher bar here. how well did she do making that case? >> she's still a cipher. we don't know much. she was the last person in the room biden talked to, i heard a piece in the washington post on friday that said talking about

her as commander-in-chief and talk about the situation room and how people say she asked good questions, both sides as a lawyer would. that is not what makes commander-in-chief. you have to be decisive on issues sometimes with incomplete education about what is going on. i am not sure she made that sale. all these insiders, so good and smart and the face of questions. afghanistan, she's associating herself with that terrible decision. she couldn't distance herself. >> she could have but this is where her debating skills showed themselves. so here is an issue as you said where she could distance herself from biden. she didn't. she flipped and this was very strategic. she not only said trump is

weak, she said that other international leaders were laughing at him. that's pushing trump's buttons. she knew that would get a rise out of him. he took the bait. he went after all those hungarian voters that are out there by mentioning victor or bond and went off on a tangent. instead of narrowing in on the afghanistan problem, just had a report by the house of representatives, he could have gone, could have pressed her on that but she pushed the right buttons so he was moving on to things she wanted him to be talking about instead of her week record on national security. paul: the point he often makes, i was commander in chief, no wars on my watch, nobody dared another country on my watch, people think i am in fact strong. how persuasive is that argument? >> as persuasive as these undecided voters think it is.

he can raise the or of strength that sort of thing. he was tougher clearly on iran than the biden administration has been. they pulled back on the sanctions, the iranians were supporting hamas, hezbollah, the houthis and their proxies in the middle east. that was existing tissue that didn't come up in the debate but it is out there. i have to say ultimately undecided voters have got to figure out which of these two sides will be stronger on national security. trump personalizes his foreign policy, dealing with xi or vladimir putin. the bigger issue is the united states has increased defense spending significantly to deal with the threat from china, iran, north korea, which party would do that? the democrats are never going to increase defense spending. joe biden's defense proposals have been even or a loss adjusted for inflation. the republicans are more likely

to increase defense spending to the degree we need and those are the positions undecided voters have to look at. choosing between a personality of harris and the personality of trump doesn't get you far. paul: donald trump isn't talking about an increase in defense spending. he did in 2016 and took credit for what increase he had in 2020 but this time he isn't and the world is much more dangerous than it was then. >> what dan is getting at is donald trump's record as commander-in-chief is better than his record. he is not quite where i would like him to be on overseas commitments and so forth. he got rid of and irani in general. i can't imagine kamala harris taking that decision. i think, i think he should contrast the party proposals.

i don't think anyone believes the democrats will be stronger. paul: what did you make of donald trump not saying he wants ukraine to win against russia when pressed on it? give you any concern? >> gives me a great deal of concern. gives a lot of our allies around the world concern from south korea and japan to israel. yes. it is very concerning but as dan was saying it is obvious the world is a more dangerous place than it was four years ago. he should have hit it out of the park. so much of the economy, these are easy and he is blowing them. paul: why do you think he is not asking for defense buildup? >> because he is aware that a lot of the proposals he's making like eliminating taxation on social security benefits do, as they say in washington, cost something and where does that money come from.

trump is smart enough that he doesn't want to expose himself to those arguments by kamala harris. paul: kamala harris on donald trump's plan to impose across-the-board tariffs on foreign goods, sales tax on american consumers. we take a closer look on what he's proposing for a second term and who could end up paying.

>> my opponent has a plan that i call the trump sales tax which would be a 20% tax on everyday goods that you rely on to get to the month. >> i have no sales tax. that's an incorrect statement, she knows that. we are doing tariffs on other countries. other countries for finally after 75 years pay us back for all that we've done for the world. paul: kamala harris called donald trump's plan to impose tariffs on foreign imports a sales tax on american consumers. the former president who previously proposed across-the-board tariffs at 10% on all us trading partners has suggested he could double that to 20%. a move the harris campaign says would cost american middle-class families next or $4000 a year. let's bring in douglas holtz eakin who is president of the american action for a man former director of the office of management and budget. welcome. let's try to help our viewers make sense of this whole tariff

issue, economic question. kamala harris says it is a sales tax on americans. is it? >> yes. it's a national sales tax. a tax on the sale of goods to american purchasers and the only difference between this and a comprehensive national sales tax, it exams thomistic purchases. many sales taxes have exemptions. it's a national sales tax. paul: donald trump says americans don't pay it, foreigners do because they are the ones who are selling the goods. isn't the economic evidence that at least in some cases foreign suppliers might have to absorb some of the costs depending on the elasticity see of supply and demand? >> just as the corporations income tax paid by corporations

most paid by american workers, this is shifted back to the sellers in foreign countries. most of the evidence in the international trade commission suggests that's not true. it is paid by us purchasers because those sellers have other places to go. if the price goes down in the us they will sell it somewhere else. hard to get them to eat this tax. this would be a burden on american consumers, 10%, $3 trillion, an enormous tax increase, the ultimate economic impact depends on some things like retaliation abroad. this would be bad for the us economy. paul: we have evidence from the first term where trump impose tariffs on things like washing machines, steel and aluminum and more broadly on chinese goods. what the economic evidence for what happened to the economy when trump imposed those in the

first-term? >> if you look back at the knock knock on the economy, past the tax bill, did the defense spending bill, did an enormous regulatory relief, from dead flat in the water to over 3% and rain into the tariff battle and slow down considerably. overshadowed by other good things that went on at that time, i don't think as a standalone it was helpful. paul: one study, the federal reserve said it took one percentage point of gdp off growth for a year. what had been looming through the tax reform 3% or so and took that down. is that consistent with your evidence? >> i was disappointed.

the tax bill was an enormous step forward, first big reform since 1986 and the economy was generating enormous amount of private sector growth. this is a step in the wrong direction. paul: trump made an interesting point in the debate, if tariffs are so awful, how come you guys didn't repeal them? she ducked that question, didn't answer it. it is a fair point, isn't it? >> a very fair point and one of the things i was puzzled by and disappointed by. that's to his credit. paul: there was economic cost, one of the tariff they kept on, steel and aluminum. what is the evidence whether or not those have helped across seven or six years.

>> let's go back further. i was in the white house in 2001 when president bush put on tariffs. how did that work out? years later we are still doing the same thing. this does not work. perfectionism does not help these industries and doesn't help american consumers. this is a bad strategy that we should learn from history and not repeat. paul: is there ever any time when tariffs can maybe be justified if not on economic grounds at least political geostrategic ground against china. >> that's a fair argument and one that in part donald trump made when he made the chinese tariffs. when he reviewed the success of those tariffs in getting china to change its behavior they didn't. it didn't work. they kept them which is the

puzzle but no evidence they accomplished their geostrategic objectives. we tried it and it's time to try something else. paul: thanks for coming in. appreciate it. it has been a year since the supreme court struck down racial preferences in college admissions. what are we learning about the now graphic makeup of the class of 2028 and what can we expect going forward? . while loading up our suv, one extra push and... crack! so, we scheduled at safelite.com. we were able to track our technician and knew exactly when he'd arrive. we can keep working! ♪ synth music ♪ >> woman: safelite came to us. >> tech: hi, i'm kendrick. >> woman: with a replacement we could trust. that's service the way we want it. >> vo: schedule free mobile service now at safelite.com. >> singers: ♪ safelite repair, safelite replace. ♪

this is steve. steve takes voquezna. this is steve's stomach, where voquezna can kick some acid, heal acid-related damage to the esophagus called erosive esophagitis, and relieve related heartburn. voquezna is the first and only fda-approved treatment of its kind. 93% of adults were healed by two months. of those healed, 79% stayed healed. and voquezna can provide heartburn-free days and nights. other serious stomach conditions may still exist. don't take if allergic to voquezna or while on products with rilpivirine. voquezna may cause serious

side effects including kidney problems, diarrhea, bone fractures, severe skin reactions, low vitamin b-12 or magnesium levels, and stomach growths. call your doctor if you have diarrhea, stomach pain or fever that won't go away, decreased or bloody urine, seizures, dizziness, irregular heartbeat, jitteriness, muscle aches or weakness, spasms of hands, feet, or voice. voquezna can help kick some acid, and so can you. ask your doctor about voquezna. paul: colleges across the country, the first to be admitted since the supreme court ruled race conscious admissions policies violate the constitution. what we are learning about demographic makeup of the class of 28 is less diverse than those that came before the high court's decision.

jason riley is looking at the data. what does it mean? >> depends how you define diversity. black and asian and roman going up at other schools, kids from socioeconomic backgrounds going to college have picked up some so depends on how you define diversity. what i'm seeing is what we've seen before the supreme court decision last year, something like nine states that banned racial preferences. the ballot initiatives, court decisions and this is what we saw at the time. initially more selective schools see a drop, black and hispanic enrollment but later a rebound. paul: it doesn't concern you that harvard's black enrollment this first-class year has gone down from 18% to 14%? >> these other states i mentioned before, what you've

seen brought graduation rates, kids are better match with schools based on their ability to do well at those schools. at the university of california, black and want in berkeley, and initially went down. through the university of california system, black graduation rates went up, skyrocketed, by 50% including more difficult stem fields. black gpas went up. i think when these kids are better matched with schools they do better and we should be more concerned about the racial makeup of the graduating class than of the freshman class. paul: harvard's case was brought by asian-american students because they said they were being discriminated against but there was no change in the freshman class at harvard in asian americans. >> we can't go everything by

the first year, different schools have different reports. they need more data. one thing is very opaque, the very reluctant to share the data. we can't necessarily know. jace mentioned other forms of diversity, it would be good to know. for me, i remember in washington, before clarence thomas was on the supreme court, had lunch with him in the press club and he talked about this. the way he put it toward what jason was saying, he went to holy cross and when he went to holy cross, he said i couldn't have done a yale. but when i finished holy cross, i could be at yale and his story was success for that reason. the fair admissions at the

university of north carolina case really landmarks putting down a marker, race preferences are legal. it was a case of concern by implication it moved across society. the impact has generally been beneficial. >> i think it will be generally beneficial. clearly we are moving back towards a system based mainly on merit than racial preferences and is affecting college admissions, corporations as well. diversity, equity, and inclusion has faded little bit as corporations fearing legal liability are moving back towards merit. the ultimate locus of this, discussion of schools is indeed a-12 education in the united states and the failed job public schools have done to prepare minority students for

going on to colleges not to mention the selective colleges. that's why black and hispanic parents, things like school choice, school vouchers are more popular throughout the united states. they know their kids could be better educated and have a better shot. paul: that's the case, k-12 education. any sign that is getting better? >> not under the biden administration. i'm surprise surprised it is not more of an issue in the residential campaign. they control k-12 education, and the outcomes have not been good. they've been getting worse, they've gone after charter schools which is a popular form of school choice among low income black and hispanic families. paul: the biden administration

accuses iran of scenting ballistic missiles to russia in a dramatic escalation of the war against ukraine. we go to care for the latest next. - bye, bye cough. - later chest congestion. hello 12 hours of relief. 12 hours!! not coughing? hashtag still not coughing?! mucinex dm gives you 12 hours of relief from chest congestion and any type of cough, day or night. mucinex dm. it's comeback season.

>> russia has now received shipment of ballistic missiles and will use them within weeks in ukraine against ukrainians. the supply of iranian missiles enables russia to use more of its arsenal that are farther from the frontline dedicating receive for iran for close range targets. paul: iran has sent short range ballistic missiles to russia for its war against ukraine calling a dramatic escalation but will let moscow strike

deeper inside ukrainian territory. in kiev, she has the very latest. welcome. tell us what you hear from the ukrainians about military significance of missile deliveries? >> it is deeply concerning. ukraine's air defenses are strained. the only thing that can take down a ballistic missile is a patriot system. that's an incredibly scarce resource and it is going to strain you farther. earlier this week i was passing through a ukrainian city that is a place where a week ago there was a ballistic missile strike and it ended up being the deadliest attack so far this year, 51 killed, 270 more than that injured. talking about horrific injuries trying to acquire a lot of amputations. that's the scale of damage they

are up against, with scarce patriot resources they are shaping up for a tough time. paul: you've been to ukraine several times since the war began. how do you find the morale of the public, compared to when you have been there. >> in this trip, i went into kharkiv on the russian border. i was interested to see if morale would be different there. i talked to this woman and show you something she gave me. this is a photo of her son-in-law, he was killed pretty recently, and they can't recover his body from the battlefield. her family paid the ultimate price at her message to americans is we don't intend to back down. we want to keep fighting.

there's a sense of weariness, loss, tragedy, and grief. i've not seen any weakening of ukrainian resolve. this is an ex essential fight and the only thing they are more afraid of than continuing the fight is losing the fight. paul: russia is beginning a counterattack against the ukrainian forces that completed, not completed, have gone, taken back and taking a lot of territory from russia. the ukrainians can hold the territory, or if they have to retreat back into ukraine. >> too early to tell and sweet and affects of the kursk operation. it's an interesting talking to people. we have limited diversions of russian forces, pushing into russian territory.

more to the point, it is 600 miles, russia is going to have to worry about can it defend that territory. or are there weak spots where they can question? that will have a significant impact on how russia allocates resources. it's creating a dilemma for russia in a way we haven't seen so far at this point. paul: there are the russian advances in the east even as ukraine is pushed into russia. how worried are the ukrainians russia could make a breakthrough on the eastern front the jeopardizes ukrainian territory? >> at this point ukrainians are making tough choices how to allocate resources, but they've got to do something, to put russia on the defensive and the kursk operation has done at. it may come at the expense of

part of the east. paul: zelenskyy says they want the ability to use long-range missiles that we are sending them in to hit targets in russia. what are the ukrainians saying? why do they need those missiles to hit targets in russia? >> the best way i had this explains to be is ukrainians are in a situation where they are targeting the arrows. they would rather target the archer. it's more efficient way of taking out what russia is using to attack. if you take out storage facility where russia has bombs, drones, other things to pummel ukrainian cities, that will make an effect and we are seeing that region kharkiv i was talking to an official pointing to a ukrainian drone strike on a storage facility

like that and it was having an effect on kharkiv, strikes significantly down. if they can increase that more, it's going good to have an effect on russia's ability to attack. not just weapons storage facilities but logistics, command and control. all the things that happen far that reinforce and strengthen the russian front. we will see russia weakening, it is all about making the russians make tough choices and this is a way to do it. paul: thank you for being here. appreciate it. we have to take one more break, hit and misses of the week.

time now for hits and misses of the day. jason, start us off. >> messmer south carolina supreme court which just struck down a scholarship program that

allowed low income families to use public funds to attend private schools. it will not surprise you to know the teachers union brought the suit, the nat national associatn association would rather kids attend failing public schools were private schools with the teachers do not belong to the union for the good news is a saved officials and the governor on down plan on continuing to support school choice in the state and hopefully this case will be appealed. kirksville question. >> a mist of the hong kong government. last week u.s. state department warned business that hong kong has become more like china. this week jimmy lied jails and newspaper man, founder of apple daily pelican with un special rapporteur on torture. that's now when you investigate charges of mistreatment like solitary confinement. did you ever think you'd see the word torture in hong kong in the same sentence? when china took over may be.

>> as they miss for la la land also known as los angeles which last week admitted heat wave experience blackouts. embarrassing blackouts one was at a concert at the hollywood bowl. the other was at the university of southern california football game. other parts of california as well experience blackouts. one of the big reasons for this is the utilities there is have been spending lots of money on green inclement bowls such as creating a more electric vehicle chargers. if you do not have a reasonable electric grid you ain't going nowhere projects thank you all paipater membership urine hit or miss mr. to send it to sj er on fnc. that's it for this week's show. thanks to this week's panel, thanks to all of you for watching. we hope to see it right here next week. ♪. arthel